Ash cloud forecasts: Model output

Mathematical models developed by the USGS forecast how a volcanic ash plume will interact with wind, and where, how high, and how fast ash particles will be transported in the atmosphere. AVO runs these models when a volcano is restless by assuming a reasonable hypothetical eruption, to provide a pre-eruptive forecast of areas likely to be affected. During an ongoing eruption, AVO will update the forecast with actual observations (eruption start time and duration, plume height) as they become available. Click on individual graphics to learn more.