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LEVEL OF CONCERN COLOR CODE: YELLOW
LAST LEVEL OF CONCERN: ORANGE
Seismic activity at Pavlof volcano declined substantially Friday evening, December 13, and has remained near background levels prompting AVO to downgrade the Level of Concern Color Code to YELLOW. The decrease in seismicity implies that lava fountaining and explosions have abated. NWS observers in Cold Bay saw lava fountaining prior to the decrease in seismicity on Friday evening; observers report no visible steam or ash emanating from the volcano on Sunday morning. Typical eruptions of Pavlof are characterized by periods of lava fountaining and associated lava flows (strombolian activity) interspersed with periods of diminished activity. Renewed lava fountaining and production of local diffuse ash clouds could begin again with little seismic warning. This pattern is expected to continue for months to years, similar to the three most recent eruptions of Pavlof exhibited this behavior from 1986-1988, 1980-1983, and 1973-1976. AVO will continue to monitor the volcano closely and issue further updates as the situation warrants.
The nearest towns to the volcano are Cold Bay (37 mi),
King Cove (30 mi), Sand Point (60 mi), and Nelson Lagoon
(50 mi). If the eruption intensifies, these towns could expect light ash fall depending on wind direction and continuing eruptive activity. Eruptive activity could cause mudflows and some flooding in the Cathedral River valley north of the volcano. Airborne ash hazards to aircraft may be considerable if a large explosive event occurs but much less severe during a typical Strombolian phase. AVO has a seismic network of six stations near the volcano.